Havish M Consulting
Customer Case Study · Buying
Retail × Havish M Consulting

Markdown Calculator for Buyers

From blanket "flat 50%" end-of-season sales to an option-level markdown for every style, set early and set right. Built with GenAI and sitting on the buyer's own sales and stock data.

ClientRetail FunctionBuying ThemeMarkdown Optimisation
Gross margin on clearance options
+0pts
▲ vs previous end-of-season sale
Season-end leftover stock
−0%
▼ less aged stock sent to outlet
Time to build a markdown plan
~0min
▼ from about 3 days of spreadsheets
Options priced individually each week
0+
▲ instead of one rate per department

Figures indicative; validated metrics available on request.

The Challenge

Markdowns were decided by the calendar, not the customer

Every season, buyers had to clear thousands of options across concepts and categories. The markdown was the single biggest lever on margin, and it was mostly set by gut feel.

Blanket discounts

One rate per department, "flat 40%" or "flat 50%". Fast sellers were discounted they didn't need to be; slow ones weren't cut enough.

Too late, too deep

Markdowns waited for the sale calendar. By then the remaining weeks were too few, so the only option left was a deep cut.

Spreadsheet marathons

Each buyer stitched together sales, stock and cost extracts by hand. A full markdown plan took around three days.

Aged stock piling up

Whatever didn't sell went to outlets or jobbers at a fraction of cost, quietly eating the season's margin.

HMC Approach

Put the maths in the buyer's hands

Buyers stay in charge of every decision. The calculator shows them what each markdown is likely to do before they commit.

Select a step to see what happened.

Discover · Learn from last season's sale

We sat with buyers and merchandisers across concepts and replayed the previous end-of-season sale.

  • Mapped how markdown rates were set, approved and loaded into stores.
  • Pulled two seasons of weekly sales, stock, price and cost at option level.
  • Found where margin leaked: blanket rates, late timing and season-end salvage.

Deliverable: Markdown leakage diagnostic by concept and category.

Design · A model buyers can explain

Simple enough to trust, sharp enough to beat gut feel.

  • Price sensitivity estimated per category from past price changes.
  • Weekly demand decay for fashion freshness; leftover stock valued at salvage.
  • Recommended markdown in 5% steps, with prices rounded to store price points.

Deliverable: Markdown logic signed off by buying and finance.

Build · GenAI-built calculator on live extracts

Claude wrote the elasticity analysis and the calculator from buyer-approved specs.

  • Weekly extract from the merchandising system cleaned with Power Query.
  • Interactive calculator: portfolio view, what-if sliders and a plan export.
  • Guardrails: maximum depth per concept, minimum margin, clear-out targets.

Deliverable: Single-file calculator plus weekly data refresh.

Adopt · Inside the weekly trade meeting

The calculator replaced the spreadsheet on the big screen.

  • Buyers bring a plan; merchandise heads challenge it slider by slider.
  • Markdowns staged earlier and shallower, starting week 8 not week 14.
  • Approved plan exported straight to the pricing team.

Deliverable: Weekly markdown cadence and approval workflow.

Scale · From clearance to the whole price lifecycle

Same engine, more decisions.

  • Extended to all concepts and to the Middle East markets.
  • Learns each season: actual sell-through feeds the next elasticity estimate.
  • Next: inter-store stock moves before markdown, and buy-depth feedback.

Deliverable: Season-on-season learning loop.

The Solution

The markdown calculator. Try it.

Pick an option from the portfolio or the plan. Move the markdown slider to see sell-through, stock and margin change, or apply the recommendation. Change weeks left, salvage value or the clear-out target and every option is re-priced.

End-of-season markdown planSeason week 10 of 16 · illustrative options

Selected option

Estimated from past price changes for this category

Season settings · all options

% of cost recovered via outlet or jobber
Margin and sell-through by markdown depth

Drag the pink marker or click the curve. ★ is the recommendation.

Stock burn-down to season end

Units left each week at full price, your markdown and the recommendation

Portfolio: where each option stands

Weeks of cover at current rate of sale vs sell-through to date. Bubble size is stock value at cost; colour is the recommended action. Click a bubble to load it.

Recommended markdown plan
OptionConceptStockFull priceMarkdownNew priceSeason STMargin vs no markdownAction

Options, prices and sensitivities are illustrative. The production version runs on the retailer's weekly merchandising extract; figures indicative.

Impact Dashboard

Less left on the rail, more margin in the bank

Earlier, option-level markdowns cleared more of the buy at better prices. The gain came from four places, not one.

Season-end leftover stock

% of season buy unsold at season end, by concept

Blanket markdown seasonCalculator season

Where the margin came from

Gross margin % on clearance options, season on season

Season totalGainCost

Figures indicative; validated metrics available on request.

Before vs After

How a markdown gets decided

DimensionBeforeAfter
GranularityOne rate per departmentA markdown for every option, in 5% steps
BasisLast year's rate and gut feelSell-through, weeks of cover and price sensitivity
TimingOn the sale calendar, late in the seasonWeekly, staged from mid-season
EffortAbout 3 days of spreadsheets per planAbout 30 minutes, exported to pricing
Trade-offsInvisible until the season closedMargin vs clear-out shown before committing
LeftoversRoughly a quarter of the buy sent to outletAbout a sixth, and falling
Tools & Tech Used

Built on data buyers already had

Claude elasticity analysis & calculator build Merchandising system extract weekly sales, stock, cost Power Query data clean-up Python price-sensitivity model D3.js interactive calculator Excel plan export to pricing
Key Takeaways

What transfers to any buying team

01

Earlier and shallower beats late and deep

A 20% markdown with eight weeks left often earns more than 50% with two. Timing is worth as much as depth.

02

Price the option, not the department

Fast sellers keep their price; slow ones get cut harder. Blanket rates give margin away on both.

03

Show the trade-off, let the buyer decide

When buyers see margin against clear-out on one screen, they make better calls than any fixed rule.